Government 'faces immigration cap dilemma'

The Government faces an "unpalatable choice" between an immigration policy that will damage the economy or the possibility of failing to fulfil a key promise, a think-tank said today. The Migration Advisory Committee's (MAC) recommendation for the level of the proposed cap on non-EU migrant workers showed the scale of the challenge faced by the Government as it aims to deliver its pledge to cut net migration from 196,000 to the tens of thousands by 2015.

Visas for students will have to be more than halved and family visas will face a 20% cut alongside a proposed reduction of between 6,300 and 12,600 in the number of non-EU migrant workers for 2011/12, the MAC said. Such workers generally earn more and have a higher employment rate than the average British worker, leading to a £6 reduction in the GDP per head.

Sarah Mulley, associate director at the Institute for Public Policy Research, said the report implied that "implementing such drastic cuts in entry visas over the next four years would have serious consequences for the UK". She said: "The Migration Advisory Committee's analysis shows clearly how difficult it will be for the Government to fulfil its promise to cut immigration substantially. "The Government now faces an unpalatable choice between introducing a policy which it knows will be damaging to the economy and public services, or failing to fulfil a key promise to the electorate."

Education chiefs also warned the proposed cap will mean universities "will be unable to compete effectively for international staff". Nicola Dandridge, chief executive of Universities UK, said: "This competition is real and urgent and we simply cannot compete if our hands are tied by artificial migration limits.
"The UK will lose out if these recommendations are accepted by the Government."

She added that the group, which represents the UK's universities, remains "very concerned about the impact of the policy of reducing net migration on international student mobility to our universities".

David Cameron has said the immigration cap, due to come into force next year, will be "business friendly".

Businesses have been lobbying the government to exempt transfers within companies from the cap on workers from outside the European Economic Area.
A temporary cap is in place but an announcement is expected next week on permanent measures from next April. The PM told Sky News: "We will try and exempt many of the inter-company transfers from the immigration system."

The annual cap on non-EU immigration was a key Conservative manifesto commitment - although it was opposed by their Lib Dem coalition partners before the election. But businesses have complained it will leave them at a competitive disadvantage.
Net migration - the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK and the number emigrating - stood at 196,000 last year.

The government has promised to at least halve this by 2015, partly by capping the number of skilled workers from outside the European Economic Area.

Mr Cameron told Sky that the government had partly been elected to get "proper control" of immigration - and he believed it was "perfectly possible" to reduce the number of get net immigration "down in to the tens of thousands rather than the hundreds of thousands". "That is our aim, that it what the policies will deliver and we'll do it in a business-friendly way," he said. "The last government's system, it had uncontrolled immigration, and 200,000 people net coming in each year, it wasn't actually delivering what business needed."

He also confirmed a hint he first made at prime minister's questions a few weeks ago, telling the programme: "I'm quite convinced you can tackle immigration and control it properly at the same time as making sure business can move people around the world. "So for instance, inter-company transfers - a company like PriceWaterhouse or someone wanting to move people between different countries - we will try and exempt many of the inter-company transfers from the immigration system."

The majority of skilled workers entering the UK from outside the European Economic Area come in on intra-company transfers. In 2009, they accounted for 22,000 out of a total of 36,490 skilled migrants.

Under present rules, workers on intra-company transfers can stay for up to five years. The CBI has urged ministers to exempt intra-company transfers from the cap, arguing that the they "enhance the UK's attractiveness as a global location for investment and jobs" and Lib Dem Business Secretary Vince Cable has been lobbying for a more flexible cap. The Home Office introduced a limit for work visas for non-EU citizens in June. As a key part of the Conservative election manifesto, this temporary cap of 24,100 will be replaced by permanent measures from April 2011.

White British people will be a minority in their own country by 2066 if current immigration levels continue, a population expert has claimed. Professor David Coleman, of Oxford University, said the demographic group would make up less than half the population in "little more" than 50 years. He said the decline will be caused by record-breaking levels of immigration and the migration of thousands of British nationals abroad over the coming decades.

Prof Coleman made the comments as the Migration Advisory Board today prepares to announce recommendations on the Government's proposed cap on migrant workers from outside the EU. Writing in an article for Prospect magazine, Mr Coleman said: "Inflows (of migrants) of the last decade have been more sudden and on a bigger scale than ever before.

"The consequent increases in population and changes in its composition have caused concern about economic opportunities, housing, local character and national identity. Moreover, if inflows continue on a similar scale, they will transform the demography of this country."

The demographic analyst said projections by the Office for National Statistics show that rising numbers of immigrants, combined with trends in fertility and survival, will see Britain's population rise to 77 million by 2051 - the equivalent to adding the population of the Netherlands. He said the population would then rise to 85 million by 2083.

"The transition to a 'majority minority' population, whenever it happens, would represent an enormous change to national identity, cultural, political, economic and religious.

"In Britain, judging by the opposition to high immigration reported in opinion polls over recent years, it seems likely that such developments would be unwelcome."